Fat Head Rolls With The Polls


cjones06192019

Donald Trump does not like bad news. When the media reports facts in opposition to his trumpism, he labels it as “fake news.” He says the free press is the enemy of the American people. He tells his cult not to believe what they see and hear. But how does he deal with bad news when it comes from his own people? He pretty much does the same thing.

This week, internal polling from the Trump campaign leaked to the press showed that Trump was losing to Joe Biden, often by double digits, in several states. It even has him losing in Florida, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina.

The results were confirmed by advisers to The New York Times. Trump called them “fake polls,” even though they came from his campaign. After they were leaked, Trump fired three of the five pollsters.

So, did Trump fire them because of the leak or did he fire them because of the results?

Trump’s base is stupid and they don’t ask questions of Trump. They’ll never correlate that the poll results Trump is calling “fake” are from the Trump campaign. But, is Trump’s belief in his own lies the reason the poll results were leaked?

Trump doesn’t read. If the polls are bad and deemed “fake,” then he’s not going to read them. Perhaps leaking them is a way to get his attention. Apparently, it worked.

Campaigns don’t leak internal polling. When a reporter points out negative polling to a campaign surrogate, they’ll usually respond that their internal polling shows more positive results without ever revealing the polls and substantiating their claims. It’s an old cop-out that has been done by Republicans and Democrats.

What’s particularly odd about the denial of the internal polls and storm around them is that they’re old. They were taken last March. Four months is a very long time in politics, especially in a presidential campaign, one with over 500 days left. Trump doesn’t even have his opponent yet. Trump and his team could have confirmed the polls existed but they didn’t matter now because they’re old. They could have lied and said new internal polling is showing much better results, even if they don’t have new polling. That’s what his campaign manager, Brad Parscale did, but not Trump. Of course, in doing so, Parscale contradicted Trump’s lie.

In addition to denying the polls existed, he also denied he instructed aides to deny them. That is an admittance the polls exists. How do you deny you didn’t instruct anyone to deny something that doesn’t exist? Trump told ABC News, “I just had a meeting with somebody that’s a pollster and I’m winning everywhere, so I don’t know what you’re talking about.” Usually, people don’t know what Trump’s talking about.

Don’t forget, Republicans always tell you not to believe in polls. They argue that they’re always wrong. They also point at 2016 as proof the polls were wrong. If polls are always wrong, then why are they upset over polls?

The fact is the polls weren’t wrong in 2016. The election result was in the margin of error for most polls. Predictions on who would win were wrong. There is a difference.

It took a perfect storm of a Democratic candidate voters weren’t excited with, racists enthusiasm, a little push from the FBI, and a lot of meddling by Russia for Trump to win the presidency. And the majority of voters still voted against him. Can the Democrats blow the election and give Trump a second term? Sure they can. They’re Democrats. But Trump has never been above water with polls in his entire political life. He’s always been below 50%.

He has a head start as the incumbent. He’s been raising money and holding rallies since the election, even before he was sworn in. Trump has never stopped campaigning for president. The biggest liability Donald Trump has to win a second term is that he’s Donald Trump.

Trump doesn’t like bad news. Even bad news that’s not very significant 18 months before the election. Hopefully, he gets a lot of bad news on election night. Then we can all enjoy watching his fat head roll.

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