Nikki Haley is looking for an upset over Donald Trump in today’s New Hampshire primary, which many people believe is her last chance to keep her presidential bid alive. For Haley to upset Trump, all the polls have to be wrong…very very wrong.
The Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking poll gives Trump a 22-point lead over Haley, which is an increase for Trump after DeSantis and his boots went a walking. The poll was taken over the past two days and after DeSantis withdrew and endorsed Trump, giving Trump 60 percent to Haley’s 38 percent.
And don’t give me none of that I-don’t-believe-in-polls crap because they’re usually very close to election results. Even in 2016 when everyone was surprised, shocked, devastated, crying, committing harakir, or packing to to move to Canada, the election result was in most polls’ margins of error. It was all the predictions that were wrong. My prediction is that Trump wins New Hampshire by at least 20 percent over Haley and she drops out tomorrow to save herself from a huge embarrassment in her home state of South Carolina.
Haley did win 100 percent of the vote at the first polling station, which was Dixville Notch. There were a total of six voters but they’re probably not an indicator of how the rest of the state Republicans will go. If Haley can somehow come within ten points of Trump, she’ll call it a win and keep fighting.
In the 1992 Democratic Presidential Primary, Bill Clinton dubbed himself the “Comeback Kid” for a second-place showing after controversies of draft dodging (that was important then), having an extramarital affair (which was also a negative back then), smoking reefer in college but not inhaling (Jesus, how prudish were we in the 90s?), and supporting the death penalty. He lost to Paul Tsongas who did NOT go on to win the presidency and to this day, cartoonists writing blogs still have to look up the spelling of “Tsongas.” So if Haley, whose name is much easier to spell than “Tsongas” since she’s not using Nimarata Randhawa, can place with a tight second, she can claim victory.
Over on the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is not on the ballot due to a riff between New Hampshire and National Democrats over the state’s place on the primary calendar. Even without the president, there are 21 names on the ballot (one is Rep. Dean Phillips and the other is cuckoo-cuckoo bird Marianne Williamson) yet due to a write-in campaign, President Biden will probably win the primary. I hope so.
President Lyndon Johnson won the 1968 primary…barely. With low approval ratings, a primary result against Eugene McCarthy, and Robert F Kennedy entering the race, Johnson dropped out. I doubt Dean Phillips can scare President Biden out of the race and no matter how bad the results are for the president, he can always cite that he wasn’t even on the ballot.
Back to Nikki Haley, it’s not that she has to defeat Trump. She has to defeat the MAGA cult. Unfortunately, the MAGAts don’t listen or pay attention.
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CLAYTOONZ 
Question: What happens if Trump wins all the polls, then the Supreme Court wakes up and rules him not eligible to run for President (sick)? In Canada in an election writing on a ballot makes the ballot uncountable. There can be no such thing as a wtite-in winner. The politicians protected themselves from the public!
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You’re correct in your analysis: Nimrod (I DO like the epithet, despite its source) Haley is an exercise in futility. Perhaps she can evoke memories of the Lost Cause by exploiting Agent Orange’s conflation of her with evidence destroying (tm, sic) Nancy Pelosi the other day in his post-selection “victory” speech after Iowa. There is a damning, short profile of her political career in a column by David Brooks in the NYT this week. And Brooks supports her!
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